Re: Containing COVID-19 (14/03/20 15:34:33)
Drastic measures will in the end prolong the pandemic, but they will also flatten the curve - and maybe to a point where our national health systems can cope with the need.
I played around with some numbers in a spreadsheet. The average daily growth rate for the last 14 days has been 1.33. So every day, the number of infected people increases by approximately 33%. Yesterday we had 3675 cases. If we don't manage to flatten the curve, we will have around 200k infected people by the end of the month. Around 20% of the infected need medical treatment. Around 5% of the infected need intensive care.
Germany has 28k intensive care beds in its hospitals, 6k of which are usually unoccupied. Let's say we could somehow cope with 10k of infected people that need intensive care. If 10k is 5%, then the number is 200k - which we probably will reach in a bit over two weeks from now. From that point on, we won't have enough intensive care beds for everyone who needed one. Then someone will have to decide who receives intensive treatment and who does not. At that point, the lethality rate will rise.
And that's Germany with comparatively many intensive care beds. Other countries in Europe have less. We will have an interesting April this year...
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